Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (June 24) The enormous rise in labour cash earnings in June was mostly driven by a jump in summer bonus that won’t be sustained, but the figures clearly point to another BoJ rate hike later this year if the... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (July 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.4 isn’t much to get excited about given it remains weak, but the corresponding increase in the employment index should soothe concerns that the labour... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jul.) The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and sharper rise in the unemployment rate makes a September interest rate cut inevitable and will increase speculation that the Fed will kick off its loosening... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Could the RBA still hike rates? Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q2) The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Wage pressures continue to ease The JOLTS labour market data for June will do little to change the Fed’s assessment of labour market conditions ahead of its policy announcement tomorrow, with slack continuing to grow gradually and... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (June) The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi gets the memo on employment The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
