China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA still on course to cut rates by February The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS continues to show a normalising labour market Despite the sharp fall in job openings, September’s JOLTS data show a labour market normalising rather than rapidly deteriorating. With October’s payrolls gain likely to have been hampered by... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strength We expect the Boeing strike and two recent hurricanes to have temporarily cooled the labour market in October. We think non-farm payrolls rose by 100,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pension referendum a risk to Uruguay’s public finances Uruguay's election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Getting a clear read on labour market conditions The September release of US non-farm payrolls was just the start of a run of strong employment releases in advanced economies this month, reigniting fears about pay growth and inflation. However, when... 21st October 2024 · 13 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba trying to shore up support ahead of election PM Ishiba has signaled that this year’s supplementary budget will be larger than last year’s. That’s largely motivated by concerns that the LDP won’t do well in next week’s Lower House elections... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2024) With the labour market running red hot, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t cut rates before the first half of next year. 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
