US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) Employment plunged by 1.1% m/m in August, but we still think that the unemployment rate won’t surpass it pre-Delta level over the coming months even as the participation rate rebounds. 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone average hourly labour costs in Q2 compared to a year earlier was mainly due to pandemic-related distortions to the data that will continue to muddy the picture for another... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) The latest data brought more signs that labour market slack is declining fast and that labour shortages are contributing to faster underlying pay growth. We suspect that beyond the next 6-12 months... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Economic recovery enters a more challenging phase The economy is entering a more challenging phase of its recovery from the pandemic as it is having to deal with another rise in COVID-19 cases and both product and labour shortages. We think the... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market shortages getting worse Tapering is off the table this month and whether the Fed will make an announcement before year-end depends on the strength of employment, which is being held back by increasingly acute labour... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The easing of coronavirus restrictions helped drive a 90,000 increase in employment in August, but the unchanged level of hours worked is further evidence that third-quarter GDP growth is likely to be... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to press ahead with tightening Economic activity in New Zealand took a significant hit as the country was plunged into its strictest level of lockdown in August. But New Zealand’s success at taming the virus means output should... 9th September 2021 · 5 mins read
