UK Economics Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The further strengthening of the labour market in August may prompt some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to put more weight on the upside risks to inflation rather than the downside... 12th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The surprisingly strong gain in September means that employment is now back in line with its pre-pandemic level, but the still elevated unemployment rate and only moderate pace of wage growth suggests... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The disappointing 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September probably still counts as “decent” enough for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next month. But alongside signs that... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged While the RBNZ this week hiked interest rates by 25bp and signalled that more is to come, the RBA remained dovish. That makes sense in light of the continued weakness in underlying inflation and wage... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Aug. 2021) Wage growth recovered a touch further in August and it should rise higher over the coming months as the labour market tightens and vaccines allow a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends from Q3 that we expect to continue We think that three recent market trends – underwhelming stock market performance, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar – are likely to continue. 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal boost, employment survey, RBI meeting Relative to budget estimates, tax revenues have been much stronger than normal at this stage of the year, helping to support the fiscal position. That supports our view that Indian bond yields will... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Aug. 2021) While employment fell sharply in August, that was due to the Delta wave and should only prove a temporary setback. We expect the jobless rate to fall further over the coming months as the lifting of... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk of euro-zone labour market “cliff edge” very low Euro-zone governments’ reduction in support for jobs will not cause unemployment in the region to jump, since there are now relatively few workers benefiting, and hiring activity is strong. But... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Farewell furlough The impact on the labour market of the end of the furlough scheme could ultimately determine whether an interest rate hike comes in the next few months, or not until mid-2022. Our view remains that... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta continues to weigh on hiring We forecast a stronger 500,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September. That should qualify as “decent” enough for the Fed to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting –... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in August brings the jobless rate back very close to its pre-pandemic level. But employment is still below pre-virus levels, highlighting that the labour market... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
