Canada Economic Outlook Supply shortages limiting economic growth We now expect GDP growth to be 4.8% in 2021, rather than 5.0%, and 3.5% in 2022, down from 4.0%. Worsening labour shortages imply that spare capacity has been rapidly absorbed and point to a sharp... 20th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the pandemic permanently reduced the workforce? The pandemic is still depressing the size of the labour force in many developed countries. This probably reflects a mixture of temporary and permanent factors, so some of it may yet be reversed. But... 19th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
US Economic Outlook Whiff of stagflation gets stronger The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not... 18th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Update Indeed Job Postings point to shortages intensifying We think that Indeed job data are useful and timely indicators of labour demand, and we will continue to monitor them in the months ahead. The latest data support the view that labour shortages are... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) In q/q terms, official GDP growth slowed to a crawl last quarter. And our China Activity Proxy points to a sharp contraction. Although some of the recent weakness in services is now reversing... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plans to double migration sound good in theory The new NSW premier has received advice that Australia should double the pace of migration in the coming years to make up for lost population growth. That plan would help ease labour shortages, boost... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Labour shortages now widespread The expiry of the CRB this month may help to alleviate the shortages of unskilled labour, but there is little chance that the shortages of skilled labour will ease until immigration picks back up. And... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their... 14th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) While employment plunged yet again in September, hours worked started to rebound and the end of lockdowns will result in a rapid recovery in the labour market over coming months. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Deepening labour shortages point to lasting damage The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released yesterday added to signs that labour shortages are still getting worse at a time when many of the temporary factors that were supposedly... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
