Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Sep.) While the fall in euro-zone unemployment in September brings the jobless rate back to its pre-pandemic level, employment has not fully recovered. But the economy is growing strongly and the vast... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q3 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4% should encourage the RBNZ to hike rates more aggressively than we had previously anticipated in the months ahead. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.1% in Australia in Q3, the first time it has entered the RBA’s 2-3% target band since 2015. Even more strikingly, trimmed mean inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.4%... 29th October 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep. 2021) While employment fell sharply again in September it should rise strongly across Q4 as economic activity gets back to near normal now that most restrictions have been lifted. Meanwhile, the sharp fall... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to fall further, mitigating shortages Data published this week provide more evidence that the supply of labour has held up fairly well in the euro-zone and that those who have left the labour market have probably not done so permanently... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta drag easing, but shortages worsening We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s labour force likely to make full recovery Since the start of the pandemic, Italy has experienced a bigger drop in its workforce than other euro-zone countries. But that largely reflects temporary factors, which suggests that the labour force... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Great Resignation and Striketober Employees are flexing their new-found bargaining power, with the unprecedented rate of job turnover, labelled “The “Great Resignation”, triggering a surge in wage growth for job switchers. Wage growth... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed’s reaction function We are confident in our new forecasts that GDP growth will be a disappointing 2.7% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, while core inflation remains elevated at close to 3%, but we are less confident in our... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia- Wage growth will approach 3% by end-2022 A renewed tightening of the labour market next year means that wage growth will accelerate further. That pick-up will be underpinned by a stronger minimum wage hike, the lifting of caps on public... 21st October 2021 · 15 mins read
