UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages pushing wage growth higher The ongoing surge in both job openings and quits in June suggests that labour shortages are still getting worse. While the acceleration in payroll gains in recent months suggests that is not proving... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong employment report points to a steeper US yield curve We think that today’s non-farm payrolls release, and recent news on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill, add some weight to our view that the past week’s climb in US Treasury yields and steepening... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Employment Report (Jul.) The stronger 943,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July and upward revision to previous months’ gains indicates that employment growth has shifted into a higher gear and that the drag on hiring from... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour Force Survey (July) The 94,000 increase in LFS employment in July was something of a disappointment given the lifting of coronavirus restrictions at the start of the month in many provinces, but the solid 1.3% m/m gain... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Jun. 2021) The weakness in wage growth in June reflected both a slowdown in regular pay and a drop in summer bonuses. But with the labour market set to tighten and corporate profits on the mend, we think that... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market While the unemployment rate is now back at its pre-virus low, a range of indicators suggest that there is still some slack in the labour market. We think the unemployment rate may eventually fall to 3... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% all but confirms our forecast that the RBNZ will hike rates at its August meeting. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 21) Retail sales, industrial production and employment all rebounded strongly in June, pointing to a sizeable recovery in activity in between the Alpha- and Delta-driven coronavirus waves. That supports... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
