US Employment Report Preview Omicron to drive temporary drop in payrolls We suspect that the surge in absenteeism linked to the Omicron variant caused non-farm payrolls to fall by 200,000 in January. But with new virus cases now falling sharply, that hit is likely to be... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity holds up as Omicron peaks The rapid spread of the Omicron variant in India has caused economic activity to weaken so far in 2022. But the damage has been much less severe than during the previous two outbreaks. Perhaps... 27th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Hit to output from staff absences could be hard Skyrocketing infections and a 10-day isolation requirement for close contacts of positive cases have resulted in a wave of staff absences in Japan. Domestic carmakers already struggling with chip... 24th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Real wage squeeze unlikely to be a rerun of 2008-14 The looming squeeze on real wages means that the near-term outlook for consumption and GDP has weakened. That said, we don’t expect anything as bad as the squeeze in 2008-14. In fact, real household... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February. 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
