UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
US Economic Outlook Whiff of stagflation gets stronger The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not... 18th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Update Indeed Job Postings point to shortages intensifying We think that Indeed job data are useful and timely indicators of labour demand, and we will continue to monitor them in the months ahead. The latest data support the view that labour shortages are... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) In q/q terms, official GDP growth slowed to a crawl last quarter. And our China Activity Proxy points to a sharp contraction. Although some of the recent weakness in services is now reversing... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plans to double migration sound good in theory The new NSW premier has received advice that Australia should double the pace of migration in the coming years to make up for lost population growth. That plan would help ease labour shortages, boost... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Labour shortages now widespread The expiry of the CRB this month may help to alleviate the shortages of unskilled labour, but there is little chance that the shortages of skilled labour will ease until immigration picks back up. And... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their... 14th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) While employment plunged yet again in September, hours worked started to rebound and the end of lockdowns will result in a rapid recovery in the labour market over coming months. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Deepening labour shortages point to lasting damage The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released yesterday added to signs that labour shortages are still getting worse at a time when many of the temporary factors that were supposedly... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The further strengthening of the labour market in August may prompt some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to put more weight on the upside risks to inflation rather than the downside... 12th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The surprisingly strong gain in September means that employment is now back in line with its pre-pandemic level, but the still elevated unemployment rate and only moderate pace of wage growth suggests... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The disappointing 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September probably still counts as “decent” enough for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next month. But alongside signs that... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged While the RBNZ this week hiked interest rates by 25bp and signalled that more is to come, the RBA remained dovish. That makes sense in light of the continued weakness in underlying inflation and wage... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Aug. 2021) Wage growth recovered a touch further in August and it should rise higher over the coming months as the labour market tightens and vaccines allow a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
