Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions even tighter The September Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey shows labour market conditions are far tighter than the 4.6% unemployment rate suggests, and points to continued rapid wage growth. With... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The rise in the unemployment rate suggests that the labour market continued to suffer right up until the end of the recent lockdowns. But given the ending of lockdowns in mid-October we expect the... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2021) Wage growth weakened in September as the Delta wave resulted in a drop in overtime working hours. But with the economy now rebounding and the labour market tightening, we still expect wage growth to... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The stronger 531,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October suggests the economy is rebounding rapidly from the initial Delta wave but, despite easing virus concerns, there was absolutely no sign of a... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The 31,200 gain in employment in October represented a marked slowdown from the 157,000 increase the month before, but the underlying details were encouraging and there appears to be much less labour... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Sep.) While the fall in euro-zone unemployment in September brings the jobless rate back to its pre-pandemic level, employment has not fully recovered. But the economy is growing strongly and the vast... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q3 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4% should encourage the RBNZ to hike rates more aggressively than we had previously anticipated in the months ahead. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.1% in Australia in Q3, the first time it has entered the RBA’s 2-3% target band since 2015. Even more strikingly, trimmed mean inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.4%... 29th October 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
