Capital Daily Payrolls point to yields staying high, for now Today’s strong September US employment report added support to the view that Treasury yields will stay high, and the S&P 500 will remain under pressure, for a while yet. But we still think yields will... 7th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The first rise in employment in four months was not as strong as it looked, as it was driven entirely by the public sector, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to GDP growth... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 263,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is another signal that labour market conditions are cooling. But with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.5% the report is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BOJ gets a glimpse of wage-price pressures The strongest increase in regular wages in 25 years is an early sign that the virtuous cycle between prices and wages that the Bank of Japan would like to see is starting to materialise. But with... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 22) The 1.6% annual rise in regular earnings last month was the largest since 1997 and jars with the fact that the labour market still isn’t as tight as it was pre-pandemic. We suspect employees are... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates to trigger a deeper recession If interest rates rise from 2.25% to 5.00%, as we now expect, we think the economy will suffer a deeper recession involving a 2% peak-to-trough fall in real GDP. That may result in the unemployment... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug.) & ADP Employment (Sep.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
