Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher migration not enough to cool labour market An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Is there really such thing as a ‘jobful’ recession? While history shows that recessions can begin even while employment is still rising, the current rate of payroll employment growth is far too strong to be consistent with an economic downturn. By the... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Increased risk of “second-round” effects We’ve been warning for some time that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect, triggering a recession. The prospect of even bigger rises in utility prices on 1 st October and in the... 10th August 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Drop in productivity most likely a statistical mirage The 2.5% slump in productivity over the past year – the worst since records began in 1948 – is another illustration of the chasm that has opened up between the GDP and employment figures. The only... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
