Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment to rise, but not surge We expect the looming recession in the euro-zone to cause the region’s unemployment rate to rise to 7.5% by the middle of next year. But this would still be historically low and is unlikely to be... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (July) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in July to a record low of 6.6% is likely to be as good as it gets. The region faces a difficult winter and recession looms. So the jobless rate is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New ADP surveys may be more useful in time The new ADP surveys of employment and wages, unveiled today, have the potential to be a useful independent source of labour market data, but for now their value is hampered by their short history. 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Almost all metros saw further gains in total employment in July, with Dallas continuing to lead, and joined by Houston, Charlotte and Miami as the fastest growers. But office-based employment growth... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (July 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in July and we do not see much room for further tightening in the labour market in 2022. 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida eager to revive nuclear energy August’s Tokyo CPI showed a further jump in electricity prices. Against this backdrop, PM Kishida announced that he wants to restart more nuclear reactors and build new ones, but it remains unclear... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market still hot We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Short term productivity outlook is bleak Already sluggish productivity growth has slowed even further since the pandemic, a disappointing result since Japan’s level of productivity remains much lower than in any other G7 economy. Two key... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will surpass 3% next quarter While there are some early signs that the recovery in employment is sputtering, we aren't convinced that the labour market has turned for the worse just yet. With labour shortages still severe and the... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022) We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
