US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Aug.)

The greater number of metros seeing a decline in total jobs in August comes as little surprise given the slowdown in the national data this month. But for the major six metros and poorer performing...

28th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Inflation to fall more slowly in Europe than in the US

There has been growing evidence that pipeline price pressures have eased, underlining our view that inflation will fall sharply next year. Commodity prices and shipping costs have fallen, product...

23rd September 2022 · 16 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long

The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...

22nd September 2022 · 11 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Can the government hit a new 2.5% growth target?

In his mini-Budget slated for next Friday, the new Chancellor reportedly intends to set an official target of raising real GDP growth to 2.5% a year. But with productivity growth and labour force...

16th September 2022 · 6 mins read

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Aug.)

China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September...

16th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Europe Data Response

EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2)

The pick-up in euro-zone hourly wage costs in Q2, along with a big upward revision to Q1, on the face of it suggests that pay pressures in the region continued to build. The detail provides a more...

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2022)

While the first rise in Australia’s unemployment rate since last year’s Delta lockdown should be followed by a renewed fall, it will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to slow the pace of...

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Aug. 22)

15th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Is the government to blame for labour shortages?

The public sector has been responsible for almost 90% of the rise in total employment since the pandemic and now accounts for the largest sustained share of employment since the early 1990s. The...

13th September 2022 · 4 mins read

UK Data Response

Labour Market (Jul./Aug.)

With further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a cooling in labour demand, the renewed fall in the unemployment rate to a new 47-year low of 3.6% was driven by a shortfall in labour...

13th September 2022 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Labour market (Jul./Aug.)

13th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Canada Data Response

Labour Force Survey (Aug.)

The fall in employment in August was concentrated in the public sector and the jump in unemployment reflected an immigration-fuelled rise in the labour force, so they probably overstate the weakness...

9th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2)

The 0.8% q/q increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 will be as good as it gets for a long time. A recession looks inevitable in the coming quarters and the subsequent recovery is likely to be sluggish.

7th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Focus

What has happened to the Phillips curve?

Hopes that policymakers can engineer a soft landing rest heavily on the belief that wage growth can be tamed without a surge in unemployment. This ‘Phillips curve’ relationship has changed recently...

6th September 2022 · 27 mins read

Japan Data Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jul. 22)

Labour cash earnings growth weakened slightly in July as growth in bonuses slowed and further moderation is in store from August with the end of the summer bonus season.

6th September 2022 · 2 mins read