Japan Economics Weekly BOJ gets a glimpse of wage-price pressures The strongest increase in regular wages in 25 years is an early sign that the virtuous cycle between prices and wages that the Bank of Japan would like to see is starting to materialise. But with... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 22) The 1.6% annual rise in regular earnings last month was the largest since 1997 and jars with the fact that the labour market still isn’t as tight as it was pre-pandemic. We suspect employees are... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates to trigger a deeper recession If interest rates rise from 2.25% to 5.00%, as we now expect, we think the economy will suffer a deeper recession involving a 2% peak-to-trough fall in real GDP. That may result in the unemployment... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug.) & ADP Employment (Sep.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market is cooling The sharp fall in job openings in August will be welcomed by the Fed as a sign that labour market conditions are starting to move back into balance. That won’t prevent further aggressive interest rate... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record immigration won’t make the Bank’s job easier The accepted wisdom is that strong immigration reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, as it will eventually help to ease labour shortages. But the immediate impact has... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The jump in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in September into double digits will be of grave concern to the ECB. Despite the weak economic outlook, we expect the Bank to prioritise inflation... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming travel subsidies a flash in the inflation pan The government announced this week that it will once again be providing travel subsidies, this time under the National Travel Discount (NTD) program, from 11th October through December. Prefectural... 30th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Retail Sales & Activity (Aug. 22) The unemployment rate dropped to a four-month low in August and a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will continue to tighten. Meanwhile, both industrial... 30th September 2022 · 4 mins read
