US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22) Australia’s labour market is starting to sputter but with unemployment set to remain low, the RBA will continue to hike interest rates. 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22) 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks dominate, French strikes fuel pay pressure Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a... 12th October 2022 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) While there were tentative signs that the labour market is cooling from the red-hot conditions seen in recent months, the shortfall in labour supply is keeping it exceptionally tight. That will... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls point to yields staying high, for now Today’s strong September US employment report added support to the view that Treasury yields will stay high, and the S&P 500 will remain under pressure, for a while yet. But we still think yields will... 7th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The first rise in employment in four months was not as strong as it looked, as it was driven entirely by the public sector, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to GDP growth... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 263,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is another signal that labour market conditions are cooling. But with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.5% the report is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
