US Economics Update Recession still more likely than soft landing The apparent resilience of employment in December has boosted hopes that the US can avoid a recession, but we still think that is unlikely. Employment is a coincident indicator whereas the only... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would a Labour government mean for the economy? Labour’s big lead in the polls raises the question of what difference a Labour government would make to the economic outlook. The answer is probably not much. A tight grip on the public finances is... 9th January 2023 · 26 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) and Sentix Survey (Jan.) The stability of the euro-zone unemployment rate in November, at a record low of 6.5%, shows that the labour market held up even better than we expected at the end of last year. And the third... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Soft landing or disinflationary bust? While investors seem to have judged that today’s batch of data supports the case for a soft landing, our view remains that the US economy faces a tough couple of quarters. With this in mind, we expect... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Resilient labour market may force Bank to do more The resilience of the labour market is a risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will pause its tightening cycle after a final 25 bp hike this month, even as the slump in natural gas prices raises... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity weakening, despite labour market resilience The data this week suggested that the weak global backdrop is being compounded by a deterioration in domestic activity, although the labour market still appears to be in good health. Drop-Ins – The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The solid 223,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop-back in unemployment to a 50-year low in December will, at face value, do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about resilient core services inflation... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggest that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack At the back of the pack The 0.3% q/q contraction in Q3 left real GDP 0.8% below its Q4 2019 pre-virus level and the UK economy lagging even further behind its major counterparts. In contrast, GDP has risen above its pre... 5th January 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show labour market conditions still tight The latest JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions remain quite tight and a lot more adjustment is needed to ensure that the drop back in price inflation to 2% will be sustained. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Falling inflation will be the big story of 2023 The November CPI report marked the second successive undershoot in inflation and there is mounting evidence that it will continue to fall sharply in 2023. (See Chart 1.) Core goods prices are coming... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
