US Economics Weekly Labour market resilience points to July rate hike The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 7th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June was the weakest gain since December 2020 and suggests labour market conditions are finally beginning to ease more markedly. That said, it is unlikely to... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surge in employment in June was not quite as strong as it looks, with hours worked essentially unchanged last month, but still suggests that another rate hike at the Bank of Canada’s meeting next... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pay hikes in collective bargaining agreements soar Notwithstanding the RBA's decision to leave rates on hold on Tuesday, we still expect the Bank to deliver three more 25bp rate hikes before bringing its tightening cycle to an end. Indeed, the case... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market remains resilient The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: labour market conditions likely to remain tight Labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have remained tight over the past year despite the weakness in economic activity and we think this will remain the case as recoveries gather pace... 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The link between the NHS waiting list and the labour market The long NHS waiting lists appear to be keeping people out of work and thereby contributing to inflation being higher in the UK than in other major economies. As the NHS waiting list is unlikely to... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
