Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ Board members starting to call for tighter policy The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting showed a lively debate about the outlook for prices and monetary policy. While many Board members believe that the Bank will have to keep policy loose... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to tighten policy as upside risks dominate Data released this week have been a mixed bag, which means that the RBA's policy decision next week will once again come down to the wire. With job vacancies falling and household cash flows starting... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Labour Market (Aug. 23) 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth continues on downward trend We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6th October. 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Total employment growth slowed slightly in August to 0.4% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover, once seasonally-adjusted. But office jobs in western cities have continued to decline as layoffs in the... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed at odds with the data The new projections published by the Fed this week signalled that officials are fully onboard with the idea of interest rates staying ‘higher for longer’, but that is based on forecasts for real... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Despite the recent rebound in energy prices, the downward trend in core inflation remains firmly intact. And with a growing number of indicators suggesting the labour market is not much tighter than... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
