UK Economics Focus Employment growth to pick up as profits recover A variety of factors has been put forward to explain the recent weakness of employment growth. But the only one that seems to stand up to scrutiny is the recent squeeze on firms’ profits growth from... 12th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Employment growth to pick up as profits recover A variety of factors has been put forward to explain the recent weakness of employment growth. But the only one that seems to stand up to scrutiny is the recent squeeze on firms’ profits growth from... 12th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the wages threat passed? The threat of a sharp rise in wages growth following the rise in consumer price inflation seems to have passed. A bigger risk now is that a tightening labour market pushes up wages growth instead. But... 26th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the wages threat passed? The threat of a sharp rise in wages growth following the rise in consumer price inflation seems to have passed. A bigger risk now is that a tightening labour market pushes up wages growth instead. But... 26th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Influx of migrants to widen current account deficit National Statistics’ estimates of the amount of money sent abroad by migrants, or “remittances”, take no account of the large rise in the size of the UK’s migrant population in recent years and are... 6th June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Labour market reform critical to Polish prospects Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around... 23rd May 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary: the sick man of Central Europe? GDP growth in Hungary will slump to 2% this year and 2.5% in 2008 as a result of the government’s latest attempt to shore up the public finances. But once fiscal consolidation is complete, we think... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why should we worry if pay growth picks up? The Monetary Policy Committee will no doubt raise interest rates again if pay growth picks up over the next few months. But we think that the inflationary threat of any rise in wages growth is not as... 6th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A timetable for the 2007 pay round This Focus sets out the key pay settlements which are likely to be concluded in the coming months. The fact that average earnings rose by 4.1% in both 2005 and 2006, compared to the 4.5% which the MPC... 31st January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A timetable for the 2007 pay round This Focus sets out the key pay settlements which are likely to be concluded in the coming months. The fact that average earnings rose by 4.1% in both 2005 and 2006, compared to the 4.5% which the MPC... 31st January 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Net migration has probably peaked The outlook for migration into the UK is crucial to the health of both the UK’s labour market and the economy as a whole. We think that net migration is probably now at its peak and set to slow. We... 3rd January 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Subdued income growth to limit spending recovery Unless households reduce their saving further, consumer spending growth will not recover without a pick-up in income growth. But with the growth of household income set to remain subdued, we think... 16th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Jobless Benefits - Why rising unemployment might not be bad for the economy (Q3 2006) The downward trend in UK unemployment seen for more than a decade has gone into reverse over the last year. The jobless total has climbed by more than 200,000 already and looks likely to rise further. 4th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Immigration to keep wage pressures subdued The rise in immigration after the expansion of the EU in 2004 could be one of the most important developments in the UK economy in recent years. But we doubt that this rise has been fully captured in... 27th March 2006 · 1 min read
