UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Migrant flows - the UK’s loss is Poland’s gain The reported increase in the number of Polish workers returning home from the UK will favour Poland’s growth prospects to the detriment of the UK’s. However, this is a long-term development that will... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay growth remains well-behaved Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The final blow for consumers? We are confident that the housing market slowdown will bring the recent strong rates of household spending growth to an end. At the same time, we are optimistic that aggressive interest rate cuts will... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector not the key threat to pay growth The inflationary risk posed by the mounting unrest about the Government’s hard-line stance on public sector pay is fairly limited. The main risk to pay growth comes directly from the private sector... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update January pay round should again pass without event The latest information on pay settlements suggests that workers are gaining the upper hand in pay bargaining. But while the risk of a substantial pick-up in pay growth is the biggest in a few years... 4th January 2008 · 1 min read
