UK Economics Update Rising unemployment to keep pay growth slowing At its September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted the importance of earnings growth for the inflation outlook and suggested that firms had in part squeezed pay to offset the effect of... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is Japanese unemployment? It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How big a worry is Japanese unemployment? It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market flexibility won’t prevent further job cuts Employment during this recession is on course to fall by less than its past relationship with GDP would suggest. Nonetheless, the labour market shake-out still has a lot further to go. 17th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO measure of unemployment most relevant for spending The main measures of unemployment have recently been giving conflicting messages. We think that the ILO measure – which is still rising sharply – is most relevant to the consumer spending outlook. 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
