UK Economics Update Labour market data point to sluggish recovery It has been suggested that the recent falls in unemployment provide further evidence that the economy is recovering more strongly than the official data show. However, the broader news on the labour... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market data point to sluggish recovery It has been suggested that the recent falls in unemployment provide further evidence that the economy is recovering more strongly than the official data show. However, the broader news on the labour... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting confirmed that the Committee is content to sit back for now and see how the effects of its past asset purchases pan out. But while it may... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Labour market prospects still weak On the whole, last week’s news on the euro-zone economy was once again pretty disappointing. But the recent stabilisation in the unemployment rate is at least a little more encouraging. Unfortunately... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the recovery in the labour market for real? Despite the scepticism of many, the recent declines in the unemployment rate in Japan are consistent with other evidence on the state of the labour market and the strong performance of the economy... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Unemployment (Jan.) Household spending dropped back in January, but the labour data were better than expected. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to question the sustainability of the sharp falls in unemployment. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus As many Eastern Europeans going as coming Recent migration figures suggest that immigration into the UK has slowed sharply, while the number of migrants leaving the UK has risen. We think that net migration flows are now back to, or even... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Easing German labour costs to help exporters Recent trade union deals point to a slowdown in German wage growth, which will come as a welcome relief to hard-pressed exporters. This supports our view that a robust export recovery will see Germany... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage costs pose no lasting inflation threat While the recent rise in consumer price inflation has been driven by temporary factors such as the VAT hike and higher energy prices, one potentially more persistent influence is the rapid growth of... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the pause in the Committee’s quantitative easing (QE) programme may be only temporary. If the recovery disappoints –... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about minimum wage increases? Proposed increases to China’s minimum wages are relatively small and they tell us very little about the outlook for inflation. 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan./Dec.) January’s flash euro-zone consumer prices figures further highlighted the distinct lack of inflation pressure in the region and offered hope that euro-zone consumers will escape the squeeze on... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
