UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The recovery in the UK labour market appears to be flagging even before the public sector job cuts have really started. We still expect unemployment to rise fairly sharply over the next couple of... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The investment implications of China's tightening labour market The ongoing structural shift in China’s workforce will cause economic growth to slow and is likely to result in higher, though still manageable, inflation. Household incomes may finally start rising... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report was a painful reality check for those hoping that a meaningful acceleration in economic activity was underway. The truth is that the economic recovery is going nowhere at... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The dramatic slowdown in economic growth is preventing any real improvement in labour market conditions. Not only is the economy struggling to generate enough jobs to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on the euro-zone economy suggests that the recent strength of activity in the region is doing little to raise price pressures or improve conditions in the labour market. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Industrial Production (Oct.) As usual the latest Japanese data include something for everyone, with unemployment edging higher but industrial production not as weak as feared in October and expected to recover. 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Companies still reluctant to boost hiring Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 130,000 in November. That would be consistent with other evidence showing that labour market conditions have yet to improve... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's employment report was stronger than expected and, at the margin, reduces the risk we will actually see the unemployment rate edge higher over the coming months. Nevertheless, there is still... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Having fully recovered the number of jobs lost during the recession, employment growth has now started to slow. Unfortunately, with the economic recovery losing momentum, prospects for employment... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Services will cushion Singapore's economic slowdown Singapore’s labour market stayed strong in Q3 while the October manufacturing sector PMI, published today, picked up and suggests that the slowdown in industry and exports is close to bottoming out... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data attest to the absence of price pressures in the region. As inflation drops back next year, we think the ECB is more likely to up its unconventional... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Output & CPI (Sep.) Japan's manufacturing output fell in the third quarter, reflecting both weaker exports and the expiry of government car subsidies at home. The outlook for Q4 is grim. However, other parts of the... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Struggling to find a higher gear (Oct 10) Our econometric model indicates that payroll employment increased by a disappointing 50,000 in October, suggesting that the labour market recovery is still struggling to find a higher gear. Private... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still battling to achieve fiscal stability Last week was characterised by fairly downbeat news on economic activity and ongoing struggles to achieve fiscal goals. Although the German business surveys remained positive, October’s fall in the... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Data (Aug./Sep.) The labour market recovery appears to be faltering, even before the public sector job cuts really begin. We stand by our long-held view that unemployment will eventually rise all the way to 3 million... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
