Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank becoming more hawkish As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Unemployment rate lowered by labour force exodus The decline in the unemployment rate doesn't just reflect an improving job market, it is also equally due to a decline in the labour force participation rate. There are roughly one million people who... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Solid increases in employment over the last three months are consistent with the pick-up in economic growth in Q4. However, the unfavourable split between part-time and full-time workers added in... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The severe winter weather that occurred during the sample week appears to explain most of the weakness in January's non-farm payrolls, which increased by only 36,000, compared with a 121,000 gain the... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore on course to tighten policy further Q4 employment data for Singapore, published yesterday, were strong. What’s more, the 2011 budget due in mid-February will probably focus on handouts to low-income groups, measures to lift productivity... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. (Dec.), Ger. Unemp. & E-Z Manu PMI (Jan.) The latest euro-zone data provide encouraging signs that the economic recovery is filtering through to the labour market and that the industrial sector is still expanding strongly. But large... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in unemployment in December is obviously welcome but the big story is the collapse in retail sales. After the better news on exports yesterday, the risks to our preiiminary forecast of a 0.6%... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Has the rebound in payrolls been even weaker? Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 125,000 in January. That would be in line with the average gain in the previous three months and suggest that the recent... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On the face of it, the latest UK labour market figures provide some tentative signs that the jobs recovery is back on track. But we continue to think that unemployment will rise sharply over the next... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is offshoring undermining the labour market recovery? The continued weakness of US jobs growth can partly be explained by offshoring. Tempted by lower labour costs and lower corporate taxes overseas, multinational firms are expanding employment abroad... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 103,000 gain in payroll employment in December was very disappointing after the spectacular 297,000 gain touted by the ADP survey. Admittedly, the drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Despite the modest acceleration in employment growth in December, Canada's economy didn't generate enough net new jobs to drive the unemployment rate any lower. The unemployment rate remained... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. (Nov.) & GDP (Q3) & German IP (Nov.) The latest euro-zone data once again highlight the huge divergences that are building up in the region and may also add to fears that the industrial recovery is failing to spread to other sectors of... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufact'ng & ADP Employment (Dec.) The latest ISM non-manufacturing and ADP private payroll surveys both suggest that the economic recovery picked up some significant momentum towards the end of last year. Growth should remain fairly... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't trust the initial jobless claims figures The sharp decline in the number of initial jobless claims towards the end of last year should not be interpreted as a sign that the labour market recovery is gaining momentum. Nonetheless, the 39,000... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s bigger-than-expected rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects. Underlying price pressures in the region remain very weak. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
