Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales (Feb.) & Small Business Confidence (Mar.) Today’s retail sales and unemployment data for February were better than expected and small business confidence was high in early March. These figures pre-date the full impact of the earthquake that... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Conditions gradually improving Labour market conditions are still improving and our econometric model, which is based on a range of monthly indicators, points to a 175,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March. After the rapid... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy fragile even before disaster struck Recent economic data releases have of course been overtaken by the tragedy of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on 11 th March. This edition of our monthly chart book has therefore turned out... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market slowly recovering The labour market is finally showing signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate falling sharply from 9.8% last November to 8.9% this February. That decline, however, owes more to a large exodus... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4.) February’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures revealed that the rise in the headline rate was once again down to energy and food. With core inflation still very subdued and global concerns building... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures gave slightly mixed messages. But the fundamental picture is that both activity and price pressures in the labour market remain weak. 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s small fall in the headline German ZEW index suggests that investor sentiment might be starting to ease in response to the ECB’s increasingly hawkish stance and global concerns. But this does... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February’s employment report was lukewarm, with net employment rising by 15,100. Nonetheless, job creation over the last three months suggests that the pace of underlying economic growth is improving... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico's job recovery yet to feed into higher wages Mexico’s labour market is on the mend. But while employment has picked up and the quality of new jobs seems to be improving, this has yet to translate into a pick-up in pay growth. 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 192,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February is healthy enough, particularly when we take into account the upward revisions to the preceding two months that added an additional 58,000 jobs... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest data on the euro-zone economy brought mixed news in the form of falling unemployment and rising inflation. 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment (Jan.) The unemployment rate remained relatively high (by Japanese standards) at 4.9% in January. The forward-looking labour market indicators are mostly improving, including vacancies, but employment and... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversed After having been depressed by the unseasonably heavy snowfall in January, we anticipate that payroll employment rebounded by about 250,000 in February. The underlying story, though, is one in which... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears of rising pay settlements overdone Tentative evidence of a rise in pay settlements has raised concerns that the much-feared wage-price spiral is kicking off. However, we remain sanguine about the outlook for pay growth and continue to... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The latest UK labour market figures provide further evidence that the jobs recovery has gone into reverse. We continue to think that over the next few years unemployment will climb from its current... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
