US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The very disappointing 54,000 increase in May's non-farm payrolls, down sharply from a 232,000 gain in April, will undoubtedly lead to calls for the Fed to continue with its large-scale asset... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Worst nearly over but recovery fragile Japanese industry appears to be overcoming the initial disruption caused by the earthquake. Industrial production started to recover in April and is expected to rebound through May and June. The... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Saudi economy manage without foreign workers? The announcement by Saudi Arabia’s government that foreign worker visas will not be renewed beyond six years will be a major blow for the country’s private sector. If the plans are implemented, there... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (May/Apr.) May’s slight drop in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prompt the ECB to tone down its hawkishness. Interest rates are set to rise again in July. 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour data still to feel full impact of earthquake Employment and wages are bound to be much slower to respond to the Great East Japan Earthquake than either production or sales, but the business and consumer surveys suggest that the labour market... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 244,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will come as something of a relief to the financial markets, particularly after the surge in initial jobless claims reported yesterday and the slump... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's job figures provide some comfort that economic growth held up towards the end of the first quarter, following February's decline in monthly GDP. Given the slowdown we expect in the US later... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay settlements provide little cause for concern It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Limited progress Our econometric model suggests that jobs growth was a little bit weaker in April, with payrolls increasing by around 175,000, down from the average rise of 200,000 in the previous two months. This may... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The labour market recovery is looking a bit healthier, with the private sector apparently managing to offset job cuts in the public sector. But the continued falls in real pay do not bode well for... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack remains high Despite recent signs of a pick up, the economy is still not growing rapidly enough to drive the unemployment significantly lower. In addition, average hours worked remains well below normal levels... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) March's employment report was disappointing to everyone, with net employment edging lower by 1,500 jobs. Although the unemployment rate nudged lower, from 7.8% to 7.7%, this came about by way of fewer... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) Conditions in the labour market are finally starting to show signs of meaningful improvement. Non-farm payrolls increased by a healthy 216,000 last month, slightly above the consensus forecast for a... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales (Feb.) & Small Business Confidence (Mar.) Today’s retail sales and unemployment data for February were better than expected and small business confidence was high in early March. These figures pre-date the full impact of the earthquake that... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
