UK Economics Update Which measure of employment is right? There has been a striking divergence between the two main measures of employment recently. But regardless of which is painting the more accurate picture, the labour market outlook remains poor. 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery levelling off The economy showed further signs of recovery from the earthquake-induced slump at it approached the end of the second quarter. Looking ahead to Q3, survey based measures suggest the recovery is... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How quickly will remittances to the Philippines grow this year? Growth in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) to the Philippines has slowed since the 2008-09 global crisis. However, we believe that remittances growth is likely to stabilise rather than... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts may have peaked this year Housing starts reached an annualised 197,000 units in June, up from a revised 194,000 in the month before. Housing starts this high are arguably well above estimates of demographic requirements, which... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) The labour market figures are still painting a bit of a mixed picture about the strength of the jobs recovery. But with the economic recovery still struggling, we continue to expect unemployment to... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature. It's awful from start to finish. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 18,000 last month, down from a similarly muted 25,000 gain the... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Recent employment gains have been respectable, including the 28,400 jobs added in June. The thorny issue, however, is that average hours worked are still well below normal, reflecting the sub-par... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Services PMI (Jun.) & Labour Cash Earnings (May) The recovery in the services sector has not been as strong nor as quick as in the manufacturing sector. Momentum is fading as we enter Q3, but firms are optimistic that reconstruction efforts will... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) Growth in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) to the Philippines has slowed since the 2008-09 global crisis. However, we believe that remittances growth is likely to stabilise rather than... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI inflation figures are likely to prompt the ECB to maintain a pretty hawkish tone at next week’s press conference. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q2), Cons. Conf. (Jun.) & Pay settlements (May) There was little in the Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey to suggest that bank lending is set to pick up any time soon. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, May) & Employment (Q1) May’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prevent the ECB from hiking interest rates again in July. But with Q1’s weak employment figures supporting our view that domestic demand will... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The labour market figures are still giving a bit of a mixed picture about how well the jobs recovery is faring. But the squeeze on real pay is very clear – reinforcing our concerns about the outlook... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) At first glance May's labour force survey appears respectable, with 22,300 jobs added and a material drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.6% to 7.4%. The details, however, are not as encouraging and... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
