UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q2) Financial and business services (FBS) sector employment edged lower in Q2, which reinforces the downside risks to Central London office rental values. For now, supply constraints should see further... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Weak wage growth to underpin fragile domestic demand Mexico’s status as a low productivity economy means that jobs are created even at low rates of GDP growth. The problem, however, is that a surplus pool of labour, coupled with a growing population and... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The drop in August employment was disappointing and points to modest growth in household spending this quarter. The only redeeming quality in the jobs report was the rotation from part-time to full... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update American Jobs Act is big but politically polarising President Obama's newly proposed $450bn job creation bill is equivalent to nearly 3% of GDP, so if it was passed by Congress as it stands it would certainly have a significant impact on GDP growth in... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) Even after allowing for the disruption of the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month, the stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign. The monthly gain in payrolls has now been below 100... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s unemployment set to stay in double digits until 2013 Egypt’s second quarter unemployment data, in keeping with other industrial indicators, reflect the poor overall state of the economy. Although the jobless rate appears to have levelled off (at just... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Braced for an outright fall in payrolls There is a real danger that the recent economic slowdown and financial market turmoil resulted in non-farm payroll employment falling outright in August, perhaps by around 25,000. That would be the... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) August’s MPC minutes and the latest labour market data strongly supported the markets’ (and our own) assumption that interest rates will remain on hold for at least the next couple of years. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) July's employment report will go some way to reducing fears that the economy is slipping into another recession. But it highlights that the labour market has hardly recovered at all from the recession... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The small increase in July's employment is not entirely surprising, considering the strong gains over the previous three months. More importantly, the details of the jobs report were fairly... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Squeeze on real pay to worsen With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Manu. PMI (Final, Jul.) June’s euro-zone unemployment figures provide further evidence that the labour market is starting to weaken in response to the slowdown in the wider economy. 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery on track as outlook brightens There was further evidence today that the recovery in Japan was broadly on track at the end of Q2. Although the labour market remains weak, and power shortages continue, businesses are optimistic... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rising layoffs hint at more permanent slowdown The fact that the recent slowdown in jobs growth is mostly due to a rise in firings, rather than a fall in hiring, suggests that a rapid rebound in non-farm payroll employment is not imminent. Our... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
