Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's employment gain of 17,500 jobs, following a slightly larger loss in the month before, was softer than we had expected and was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from nudging higher... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s fall in the EC survey of euro-zone economic sentiment, together with November’s drop in retail sales and the still high rate of unemployment, confirms that the euro-zone economy is in a... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Momentum unlikely to be maintained throughout 2012 Our econometric model suggests that the labour market ended 2011 on a high note, with non-farm payrolls rising by around 150,000 in December. That would be a marked turnaround from the stagnation in... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Confidence important during global slowdown Given the worsening global economic outlook and its negative implications for the export sector, confidence among domestic households and businesses will be critical to Canada's overall economic... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Weak start to 2012 After a run of bad data, many are now looking at prospects for 2012 with a sense of foreboding. GDP growth in Q4 may have dropped below 7% q/q in annualised terms. Monetary conditions have loosened a... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns to dominate in first half of 2012 The past month has brought yet more evidence that Brazil’s economy has come rapidly off the boil. Indeed, it seems likely that the country may now, in technical terms at least, be in recession. For... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) Unemployment is still rising – and would be increasing far more rapidly were it not for large numbers of workers becoming self-employed. We expect unemployment to rise much further as the economy... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Entering another deep recession Hopes that euro-zone policymakers will hatch a new “grand plan” to save the euro-zone may have grown, but evidence is mounting that the region is on the cusp of another deep recession. In November... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The decline in the unemployment rate to a two-and-a-half-year low of 8.6% in November, from 9.0%, is another illustration that the US economy is, for now at least, shrugging off the global economic... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprising 18,600 decline in employment, which followed an even greater decline in the month prior, is discouraging to say the least. Given the deepening global financial crisis, an... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Labour market fragile, but not deteriorating Japan’s labour market is weaker than at the start of the year but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in October makes conditions look worse than they are. The economy is not shedding jobs, but... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Better economy starts to help young workers Our employment model suggests that the recent improvement in economic activity is consistent with non-farm payrolls increasing by around 100,000 in November, up from October's 80,000 gain. It is also... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are City jobs for London's housing market? Popular perception dictates that City jobs are a crucial driver of London’s housing market. Yet there have been at least two previous occasions when significant City redundancies did not trigger house... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker growth to be met with policy stimulus A combination of weak growth and deepening debt crises in the G7 and softer demand from China means that the economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next few... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
