UK Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices presents new threat to recovery The rise in energy prices adds to the reasons to be cautious about assuming that the recent pick-up in the economic recovery will continue. 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest euro-zone data revealed an unpalatable combination of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment at the start of the year, suggesting that the recent improvement in sentiment towards the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Feb.) Most of the UK regions shared in the improvement in output growth suggested by the national and global activity surveys in January. But labour and housing markets in the North are continuing to fare... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The labour market data continue to paint a bit of a mixed picture, but the key point is that unemployment is still rising and is likely to increase much further in response to the sluggish economic... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Money and credit still very weak While some of the euro-zone activity indicators have nudged up this month, money and credit growth have weakened further. The annual growth rate of the broad money supply fell to an 11-month low of 1... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China's shifting labour market China is undergoing a major shift in its labour market as the surplus of rural workers dries up. But, after delving into the details, we conclude that several factors will dampen the speed at which... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January's Employment Report was unequivocally strong and points to a rapidly improving labour market. Non-farm payrolls increased by 243,000, a nine-month high, up from 203,000 in December. That was... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's dismal employment gain and rise in the unemployment rate are further signs that the economy ended last year on a weaker footing. Given the headwinds confronting Canada's economy, we doubt... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy stumbles in the fourth quarter November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Output stronger than expected but difficulties remain Industrial production surprised on the upside in December, and survey evidence points to another strong month in January. Whilst it is nice to get some good news on the Japanese economy, it is hard to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Dec.) December’s euro-zone unemployment figures revealed a further increase that will add to the downward pressure on consumer spending in the coming months. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Benchmark revision adds to the uncertainty After incorporating the “known knowns”, our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 150,000 in January, which would be less than December’s 200,000 gain. The “known unknowns” of the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read