Asia Economic Outlook Asia well placed to withstand weaker global growth Asia is well placed to withstand the impact of any major shocks to the global economy. The health of economic fundamentals and policymakers’ room for stimulus should enable the region to grow by just... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) April’s fairly hawkish MPC minutes left it looking more likely that the Committee will pause its quantitative easing (QE) programme once the purchases currently underway are completed next month. But... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis unsolved as growth outlook darkens Hopes that the crisis in the euro-zone had been solved by Greece’s debt restructuring and the ECB’s recent liquidity injections have faded. Despite some signs of resilience in Germany, the economic... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Over-employment at Japanese firms on the way out The employment component of the Tankan provided some welcome good news in an otherwise lacklustre survey. The employment index fell to its lowest level in four years, indicating that Japanese firms... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointingly modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, which was exactly half the 240,000 gain month before, mainly reflects some payback from the unseasonably warm winter. Between... 6th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The 82,300 increase in employment in March, which was the biggest monthly gain in three-and-a-half years, goes a long way towards making up for the disappointing run of jobs reports going back to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack LTRO euphoria starting to fade Recent news on the euro-zone economy has dampened hopes that that the ECB’s longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December and February had largely solved the euro-zone’s economic and fiscal... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) February’s rise in euro-zone unemployment confirmed that the resilience of the German labour market is doing little to drag up the average. With high inflation and fiscal tightening adding to the... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate will decline more gradually Our econometric model, which takes into account a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment rose by around 200,000 in March. That would be the fourth monthly increase of 200,000 or... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who in Asia will benefit from rising labour costs in China? After years of strong growth, China’s textile and apparel exports are now losing market share abroad. Indeed, high and rising labour costs in China mean the migration of low-end manufacturing out of... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for stimulus to be felt The data for the first two months of the year were in general downbeat. Everything from imports to electricity and cement production slowed. Still, Q1 was always likely to be weak. Policy loosening... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia continues its strong start to 2012 The usual raft of monthly activity data, released earlier today, confirmed that Russia’s economy remains in a decent shape, helped by the recent rise in the oil price. As things stand, GDP seems on... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Crunch time for Egypt Egypt’s talks this week with the IMF over a $3.2 billion package could prove to be a defining moment in the post-Mubarak era. With FX reserves now at dangerously low levels, external financing is... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation still set to fall The recent rise in gasoline prices won’t prevent inflation from falling, but it will limit just how far and fast it drops. What’s more, evidence of a strengthening in underlying price pressures... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
