US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Labour market activity is still holding up surprisingly well. But pay growth remains exceptionally weak and we expect the return to recession to weigh on the jobs figures before long. 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Back into recession in Q1 The UK returned to recession in Q1, making this the weakest peacetime recovery in a century. Reasonably positive activity surveys for the first quarter raise some doubts about the ONS’s Q1 estimate... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weakening outlook fuels growth calls The growing calls for euro-zone policymakers to shift their emphasis from austerity to growth have been fuelled by the continued deterioration in the outlook for the economy. Key forward-looking... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Mar./Apr.) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector underline the enormity of the challenge facing policymakers to respond the growing calls for growth across the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export improvement brings fragile recovery Emerging Asia’s economies fared better in Q1 than Q4. Both Singapore and Taiwan returned to quarterly growth, while Korea’s economy grew at a faster q/q rate. Business and consumer surveys show an... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Chinese tourism bonanza for Asia The past 15 years has seen a surge in the number of mainland Chinese travelling overseas. Although Chinese tourists are becoming increasingly adventurous and travelling further afield, the vast... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth talk is cheap Last week saw what appeared to be an encouraging outbreak of unity amongst euro-zone policymakers on the need to supplement fiscal austerity with bigger efforts to boost economic growth. But talk is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Not another 2010 or 2011 We don’t think that the 120,000 increase in nonfarm payroll employment in March, which was half February’s rise, is the start of a sustained period of substantially weaker jobs growth. Our econometric... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank earlier this month to cut interest rates once again has raised concerns in some quarters about the outlook for inflation over the rest of this year. As it happens... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack G7 to the rescue? The recent announcement by the G7’s Deauville Partnership that it will soon deliver on its earlier promise of a $20 billion ‘Arab Spring’ package to Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Jordan, could... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
