Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun) June’s EC survey mirrors the picture from other timely indicators lately that the euro-zone is in a deepening and broadening recession. This further underlines the need for policymakers to come up... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Market Data (Apr./May) June’s MPC minutes left an extension of quantitative easing (QE) within the next month or two looking even more likely. We are sticking with our forecast for another £50bn of gilt purchases at the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response LFS(May 12) & Trade (Apr 12) May's more modest 7,700 gain in employment is forgivable given the unusually strong growth in the previous two months. That said, the details were somewhat discouraging. While part-time employment... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Euro crisis clouds the outlook The combination of a deep recession in the euro-zone and the Arab world’s own political turmoil will act as a drag on the region’s economies in the near term. The North African countries are likely to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK remains a safe haven from euro-zone turmoil The threat to the UK from the euro-zone has continued to intensify, with concerns building about the Spanish banking system in recent days. But the UK has so far retained its safe-haven status, with... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May's employment report clearly suggests that labour market conditions are deteriorating again, which will undoubtedly prompt more speculation that QE3is coming soon. Non-farm payrolls increased by... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Apr./May) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector confirm that the economic downturn is broadening and gathering pace. This clearly further reduces policymakers’... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery already losing momentum Japan’s rapid recovery in Q1 already appears to be losing momentum. The unemployment rate has risen again and retail spending fell for a second consecutive month in April. However, government... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
