UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will firms and households fare? With the drag from the euro-zone crisis on the UK economy set to grow, the chances of a decent recovery rest heavily on a strong revival in domestic spending. But neither firms nor households appear... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 7,300 gain in employment was close to consensus expectations (+5,000) and supports our view that the economy grew more strongly in the second quarter, to 2.2% annualised from 1.9% in the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 80,000 rise in payroll employment in June provides further evidence that the US economy has lost momentum since the turn of the year, but that the recovery is not grinding to a complete halt. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation outlook improves The near-term inflation outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks. Inflation has fallen below 3% for the first time since the end of 2009. It will come under further downward pressure from... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (May/Jun.) The latest data on labour market conditions and the manufacturing sector in the euro-zone confirm an overall picture of economic weakness. This provides a difficult backdrop against which European... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery stuttering to a halt The most recent data on Japan have painted a dismal picture of economic conditions in May. Industrial production has fallen sharply as auto makers cut output in anticipation of the end of the auto... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Sensible changes, but no big cure Against a background of low expectations, the changes agreed at the EU Summit to tackle several issues which threatened to inhibit the effectiveness of short-term support measures came as a pleasant... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Apr.) April's payroll survey data, which showed a strong increase in average weekly earnings and a modest gain in employment, point to solid second-quarter wages and salaries growth of around 5.0%... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Past the worst? Our econometric model suggests that at least some of the recent softening in jobs growth was reversed in June, with non-farm payroll employment rising by around 125,000. That would be almost twice as... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
