US Employment Report Preview No signs of faster jobs growth Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 100,000 in September, which would suggest that labour market conditions remain lacklustre. 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: much depends on IMF deal as fiscal challenges mount The fact that the Egyptian government intends to increase public sector employment in the next fiscal year adds to our view that its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 is too optimistic. We think that... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market figures revealed that employment has continued to grow, despite the underlying stagnation of output. However, we remain concerned that the labour market’s exceptional... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses boost hiring plans The modest rebound in the NFIB small business optimism index to a three-month high of 92.9 in August, from 91.2, is encouraging, but the index is still well below its pre-recession level, suggesting... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update No quick fix for South Africa's mining sector The structural problems in South Africa’s mining sector have been brought starkly into focus by the ongoing bout of labour unrest. Although it is difficult to predict to how events will pan out from... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger than expected 34,300 rebound in August employment, which offsets a similar decline in the prior month, leaves employment barely higher than three months ago. Dwindling employment gains... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug. 12) The modest 96,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August only increases the probability that the Fed will launch QE3 next week and it won't help President Obama's re-election chances either. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa set to remain a regional underperformer Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) & Flash CPI (Aug.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in July, coupled with the pick-up in inflation in August, supports the view that the downturn in household spending will intensify in the second half of this year. 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia's consumers far from immune to global problems We expect global demand to stay weak in coming quarters and for labour markets and consumer confidence in Asia to soften as a result. Central banks in the region are likely to ease further, which... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Payroll Survey (Jun.) & Balance of Payments (Q2) June's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that better second-quarter wages and salaries growth supported stronger consumption... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No respite in sight for Japan's manufacturers It was perhaps refreshing that last week there was at least one occasion when news from Japan drove markets elsewhere, rather than vice versa. Unfortunately, that news was bad, namely the weakness of... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
