Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q3 12) The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs hit a fresh record high in Q3. For now, we continue to pencil in falls in City and West End office rents in 2013. But the persistent... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov. 12) The latest labour market figures provided further evidence that the recent strength of employment growth is fading. And real pay is still falling quite sharply. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprisingly strong 59,300 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) seems far too good for an economy that is still growing below its potential rate. Given the uncertain... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report is something of a mixed bag but, on balance, it's a positive. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 146,000 last month, well above the consensus... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep/Oct. 12) The latest labour market figures revealed that while employment has continued to grow, the pace of expansion is slowing. And timelier indicators suggest that the labour market’s recent resilience may... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
