Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's weaker than expected 21,900 decline in employment (the consensus estimate was +5,000) can be forgiven, given the unusually strong gains posted in previous months. Nevertheless, with the... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation is good news for consumers, but with unemployment still at a record high in December, incomes and spending will remain under severe strain. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) The labour market appears to have found a second wind following earlier indications that its strength was fading. But the price for this resilience is very depressed earnings growth. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from rising labour costs in China? China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) Despite the small rise in economic sentiment in December, the latest batch of eurozone data still presented a decidedly downbeat picture of the state of the currency union’s economy at the end of last... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) There is no denying the strength apparent in Canada's labour market at the end of 2012. Employment increased by nearly 40,000 in December, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-year low of 7.1%... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 155,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December is yet another month of job growth that is just about enough to keep pace with the underlying growth in the labour force, but not enough to drive... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong's low unemployment no support for domestic demand Hong Kong’s unemployment rate remains low despite the weak economy, as employers have responded to falling demand by cutting wage growth. The result has been a slowdown in consumption. Even if... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
