US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) While March’s MPC minutes revealed that the three members who voted for more QE last month remained on their own in calling for more stimulus, we continue to think that the Committee will do more... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market inflation pressures won't amount to much The current signs of inflationary pressure in the labour market will probably amount to nothing. Although we are mindful that accelerating earnings growth could be an early indication that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak hourly earnings limits wage growth The strong pick-up in Labour Force Survey hours worked suggest that first-quarter wages and salaries growth should improve from the modest 2.4% annualised gain posted in the fourth quarter of last... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4) The latest figures on consumer prices and labour costs in the euro-zone emphasised that the inflation outlook presents no obstacles to the provision of further policy support from the ECB. 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Older workers offer a mixed blessing The UK’s impressive employment performance has been driven in large part by a dramatic rise in employment among elderly people. This is a desirable development in light of the UK’s ageing population... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market improvement falling short of “substantial” The recent strengthening in the labour market is encouraging, but today’s news on the rates at which workers are being hired and are quitting is further evidence that it falls short of the... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey & Housing Starts (Feb.) February's 50,700 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +8,000) is a big surprise given how weak GDP growth has been recently. Even after taking into account the 21,900 jobs lost in January... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report isn't a game changer, but it adds to the evidence from the upbeat ISM surveys released earlier this week that, despite the expiry of the payroll tax cut, higher gasoline... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Higher inflation not necessarily good news for workers The year-on-year increase in labour cash earnings in January was flattered by late payments of winter bonuses. Underlying wage growth is still negative, meaning that households have been relying on... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the further rise in unemployment in January raised the chances of further policy action by the ECB. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's employment puzzle Rising employment has been one of the few bright spots for the recession-stricken Hungarian economy. But this merely reflects the weakness (indeed absence) of labour productivity growth. And as long... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) February’s MPC minutes provided another clear demonstration of the Committee’s increasingly flexible approach to inflation targeting. We continue to think that more QE is only a few months away. 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
