UK Economics Focus Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks? There seems to be a general view that the MPC is underestimating how quickly unemployment will fall to the 7% threshold set under forward guidance, helping to explain why markets expect interest rates... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Jobs pick-up in Scotland and North West a better sign for rents The pace of employment growth has slowed in several regions over the past few months but picked up in Scotland and the North West. Other factors such as existing vacancy rates are obviously relevant... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets get over-excited by labour market news Market rate expectations rose further last week following some positive unemployment figures and the news that the Monetary Policy Committee was not unanimous in supporting forward guidance in the... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how is the wage negotiation season progressing? Agreements have now been reached in more than half of the sectors holding talks during South Africa’s current wage negotiation season. However, a lack of agreement in the mining sector means the risk... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) MPC member Martin Weale’s vote against the introduction of forward guidance will hardly help to reassure the markets about the strength of the MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates low. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German minimum wage won’t rebalance the euro-zone Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is driving nominal pay growth down? A notable development over the past year has been the further step down in the rate of nominal pay growth. This seems most likely to have reflected the previous slowdown in productivity growth... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) July's surprising 39,400 decline in employment looks bad but, since it mainly reflects less hiring of younger workers this summer, the Bank of Canada should view it as a temporary shock that will be... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Hollande reverse the trend in French unemployment? Time is running short for President François Hollande to fulfil his vow to reverse the trend of rising French unemployment by the end of 2013. Despite the recent improvement in the business surveys... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What to make of changes in labour market participation In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) The latest news on euro-zone unemployment and inflation injected a slight note of caution after the recent run of better news from the region. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment (Jun.)& Small Business Confidence (Jul.) We are not too worried about the fall in industrial production in June, as manufacturers forecast a strong rebound in July. Small business confidence also remains at relatively high levels. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
