UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The drop in the ILO unemployment rate to 7.7% in the three months to July is consistent with signs of economic recovery and takes the rate closer to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But with scope for a... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers’ Survey (Aug.) The ongoing falls in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers’ Survey (EWS) indicate that confidence in "Abenomics" has faded. While other surveys remain at strong levels, the EWS has a better... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is regular pay not picking up? Despite improving economic conditions, which include the unemployment rate dropping to fresh cyclical lows, nominal wages excluding bonuses and overtime payments have continued to fall. One reason is... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recovery gains momentum but capacity still ample The business surveys for August suggest that the global recovery, which accelerated in the second quarter, may have strengthened further in Q3. However, there is still plenty of spare capacity around... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August's Employment Report is a mixed bag that can be used either to support an immediate tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases or to delay that move. Our best guess is that the cumulative... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery quickens as productivity rebounds The run of positive economic news has continued, with quarterly GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 0.7% and August’s CIPS/Markit PMIs pointing to even stronger growth in Q3. The divergence between output... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Business and household prospects diverging The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP only added to the uncertainty about the planned consumption tax hikes. The latest monthly data have mostly been favourable, notably the buoyancy of business... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Rebound in payroll growth would point to September QE3 taper A rebound in employment growth and an unchanged unemployment rate should reinforce expectations that the Fed will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in September. Our econometric model of non... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The sharp drop in retail sales in July casts doubt on the ability of “Abenomics“ to boost private consumption. While hot weather may have prevented consumers from spending, there are a number of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update More is needed to encourage women to work Higher female participation could eventually provide a small but welcome boost to the potential growth rate of the Japanese economy. However, the government’s pledge to improve the availability of... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
