Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowly Evidence mounted last week that euro-zone unemployment has peaked. Particularly encouragingly, many of the peripheral economies have now enjoyed several months of falling unemployment. What’s more... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug. 13) & Final Manu. PMI (Sep.13) August’s euro-zone unemployment figures provided further tentative signs that labour market conditions are improving. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Unemployment Rate (Aug.) The surge in the unemployment rate in August reflects a jump in the labour force participation rate and is at odds with other labour market indicators. Unemployment is likely to resume its downtrend... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should retailers be worried by the minimum wage proposals? While tomorrow’s rise in the national minimum wage (NMW) is small, proposals to increase it significantly more in the future threaten to add to the pressure on retailers’ profit margins. But even if... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch labour market downturn to deepen The Dutch labour market – once the envy of the euro-zone – will continue to shed jobs over the coming year. And as firms attempt to recover previous sharp falls in productivity, employment growth is... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Workforce to receive boost from Romanians and Bulgarians Relatively strong growth in the workforce is one factor that should prevent the unemployment rate from falling quickly towards the Bank of England’s 7% threshold. An influx of workers from Romania and... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Final CPI (Aug.) Q2’s labour cost data revealed that cost growth in the euro-zone core slowed relative to that in the periphery, undermining hopes of a swift rebalancing within the bloc. 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market still strengthening It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are we really a nation of estate agents? Last week’s numerous stories about estate agents dominating the jobs market were probably a bit over the top. In fact, the rise in both manufacturing and construction employment in the first two... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment to fall slowly as global economy recovers Although the global economy appears to be strengthening, we think the unemployment rate in most advanced countries is likely to fall only gradually. This is because there is a lot of scope for a... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q2) Q2’s employment data suggest that the downturn in the euro-zone labour market is coming to an end. But a significant upturn remains a distant prospect. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
