Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. (Nov.) & Spa. GDP (Q3) November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's dual labour market such a big problem? Japan’s dual labour market undoubtedly has some economic costs, as non-regular workers are much less productive than regular employees. However, the degree of labour market duality is not vastly... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop in participation rate more structural than cyclical The push by the Fed to delay tapering its asset purchases and possibly to lower its unemployment rate threshold suggests that officials expect the participation rate to rebound. We're not convinced... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public jobs no solution to high MENA unemployment High unemployment rates have grabbed the headlines in the MENA region, not only as a catalyst for the Arab Spring revolutions but also for prompting a backlash against expatriate workers in the region... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Inflation Report provided some superficial support for expectations that interest rates will rise sooner than the MPC suggested back in August. But we still think that the disinflationary... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Underemployment will keep wage pressure subdued Underemployment, where people are in employment but want to work more hours, reached a record high in the first half of 2013. This means that there is more slack in the labour market than the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
