UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) Sluggish wage growth in Japan remains a major stumbling block to higher inflation and the overall success of Abenomics. 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls once again hit by bad weather A third consecutive month of weak payroll growth in February would raise speculation that the Fed will pause the tapering of its asset purchases. But because any weakness this month was probably due... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Falling unemployment rate forces Fed into rethink With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, leaving it only trivially above the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will soon need to update its forward guidance on when it might begin to raise the fed... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Despite uncertainty surrounding the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year, today's downbeat PMI suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector continue to deteriorate. With no loosening of... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) & MPC Minutes (Feb.) The latest labour market data showed that there is still plenty of spare capacity in the job market. Since the minutes of February’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Committee is committed to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economic growth too slow to bring down unemployment The Egyptian economy has shown signs of recovering in recent months but this has yet to feed through to the labour market. Crucially, GDP growth is still below the rates of around 4-5% that are needed... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Feb.) Wednesday’s labour market figures seem likely to indicate that there is still considerable slack in the economy which will keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time to come. Indeed, by our... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African labour market conditions remain tough On the face of it, the fall in South Africa’s unemployment rate to a two-year low in Q4 is encouraging, but much of this can be explained by a rise in temporary employment in sectors that deliver low... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
