Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) & Housing Starts (May) According to June's small business confidence, the economy has recovered quickly from the shock to demand caused by the consumption tax hike. 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea will struggle to overcome its demographic drag Korea has some of the worst demographic dynamics in Emerging Asia. Not only is the population set to age dramatically, but the size of the overall workforce is also set to fall sharply. Although the... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: May; Tokyo: Jun.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (May) The rebound in retail sales and the renewed decline in the unemployment rate in May confirm that the slump following the consumption tax hike was short-lived. 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Small firms in the driving seat Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2014 Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) June's flash manufacturing PMI confirms that the economy has stabilised after the slump caused by the consumption tax hike. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak wage growth adds to deflation risks Data last week revealed that euro-zone labour costs growth fell to just 0.9% in Q1, adding to evidence of deflationary pressure in the region. The fall in wage growth has not been confined to the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Iraq crisis raises contagion fears The unfolding crisis in Iraq has cast a shadow over the region, causing equity markets to tumble. As it happens, the largest MENA economies have only limited trade and financial ties with Iraq... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Latin America’s economy looks set to remain stuck in the slow lane over the next couple of years. The drivers of strong growth over the past decade – including rapid credit growth and strong global... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) June’s fall in ZEW economic expectations suggested that investors were unimpressed by recent ECB action and added to signs that the German recovery is nearing a peak. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) April’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the strong euro continues to undermine export growth, highlighting that the ECB still has more to do to support the recovery. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
