US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s flash euro-zone CPI inflation data underlined the absence of price pressures in the currency union and should encourage the ECB to offer stronger hints of additional policy support to come... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (July) Today's data on industrial production and retail sales show that the economy continued to stagnate at the start of the third quarter. What's more, inflation moderated in July and is set to decline... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Improving trend reasserts itself Our econometric model implies that the easing injob growth and the rise in the unemployment ratein July were just blips in otherwise improvingtrends. We estimate that payroll employment roseby around... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Dubai's GREs slowly tackling their debt problems Over the past month Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs), which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, have made further efforts to tackle their huge mountains of debt. The recovery... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are part-time workers depressing wage growth? Growth in the share of part-time workers in Japan’s workforce is one factor being blamed for the recent sluggishness of wage growth. In reality, this shift has not had much of an impact on aggregate... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) While small business confidence weakened in August, firms expect conditions to improve strongly next month. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (August) The improvement in the flash manufacturing PMI in August suggests that the sector has come back to life. 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE recovery loses steam The raft of second quarter GDP data released in Central and South Eastern Europe this month showed that growth eased across much of the region. It’s tempting to interpret this as a sign that the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: still struggling at the start of Q3 July’s activity data will do little to ease concerns about the outlook for Russia’s economy. Industrial production accelerated a little and agricultural production strengthened on the back of this... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deciphering the pay puzzle Last week’s Inflation Report saw the MPC place more emphasis on earnings at a time whenindicators are giving radically different signals regarding its current – let alone likely future –strength... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
