UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Labour Data (Jul./Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting struck a fairly dovish tone, while the continued weakness of average earnings growth has bolstered the case for keeping interest rates on hold over the coming... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) September’s small fall in the German ZEW investor expectations index and thesharper decline in the current conditions index added to evidence that the recovery inthe euro-zone’s largest and strongest... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Healthy labour market keeping policymakers calm Premier Li Keqiang’s comments last week prioritising reform over stimulus have taken on added significance in the light of the weekend’s weak activity data. Policymakers are aware that efforts to... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong jobs figure does not alter the picture for Australia Data released last week showed that Australia added more jobs in August than in any other month on record. But the jump does not change the broader picture of labour market weakness, and it does not... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Canada's discouraging employment performance over the past six months is further evidence that the economy is struggling and that the Bank of Canada's needs to keep interest rates low to have any hope... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big picture Last week’s revised GDP estimates were seemingly all things to all men, supporting political parties’ views and every economist’s forecasts for interest rates and fiscal policy. In reality, the new... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The modest 142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which was well belowthe consensus forecast at 230,000 and the smallest gain this year, will inevitably sparkspeculation that the US recovery... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth likely to slow again Labour cash earnings expanded at the fastest pace since 1997 in July. Given recent, much slower, gains in productivity and the low likelihood of significant further tightening in the labour market, we... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation threat raises pressure on the ECB August’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.4% to 0.3% left it at its lowest rate sinceOctober 2009, when it was negative, and well beneath the ECB’s target of “below, but closeto, 2%”. What’s... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (July) Wage growth surged in July, but is set to slow in coming months as the summer bonus season ends. 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for wage inflation? With the important exception of the US, we expect wage inflation in the major advanced economies to remain subdued in the coming year or two, even as labour markets approach “full employment”. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
