Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) With euro-zone HICP inflation still close to zero in October and the unemployment rate holding near a record high, there remains a significant risk of deflation in the single currency area. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending & Inflation (Sep.) The renewed rise in unemployment last month shows that the labour market is no longer tightening, and we think it will start to slacken in earnest soon. Meanwhile, inflation continues to slow, and... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) The third decline in small business confidence in a row suggests that the economy is not quite as strong as the jump in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicated. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain upbeat despite asset price falls On the face of it, the recent sharp fall in equity prices and slowdown in the housing market suggest that the significant improvement in consumer confidence seen over the last year might be reversed... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail rental values finally show signs of life All-property rental values grew by 0.4%m/m in September, the second-biggest monthly increase since mid-2007. Industrial and office sector rental values continued their recovery, but perhaps the most... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Today's PMI reading supports our view that the labour market remains healthy. That said, it also suggests that cooling domestic demand is still putting downward pressure on growth going into Q4. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (October) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicates that industrial production should stop falling soon. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How bad is Belgium’s competitiveness problem? The improvement in southern euro-zone nations’ competitiveness has left some core countries, such as Belgium, lagging behind. If Belgium and other uncompetitive economies are unable to close the... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
