Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The sharp fall in the Economy Watchers Survey in October adds to other survey evidence pointing to a sluggish economic recovery. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October and remains barely higher than immediately after the sales tax hike. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The stronger than expected employment gain of 43,100 in October, following a massive 74,100 rise in September, is the most encouraging sign yet that the economy may have shifted into a higher gear... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinking Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) Although the 214,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October was slightly below the consensus forecast of 235,000, this was still, on the whole, a strong employment report. In particular, a 638,000 surge... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth is slowing (but not collapsing) Global growth appears to have softened at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The stagnation in the euro-zone has continued and Japan has still not recovered from the effects of April’s consumption... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Oct.) A gain in employment in October, after two months of net job losses, will allay some of the worst fears about Australia's labour market, but it still looks far from healthy. 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Significant slowdown still looks unlikely Fears that the UK’s economic recovery is rapidly losing steam appear largely overblown. Admittedly, the Markit/CIPS Composite PMI, which weights together the headline indices for the manufacturing... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth slowed further in September, and will likely continue to fall short of inflation as the labour market is no longer tightening. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China Watch - Labour market remaining resilient despite property gloom The outlook for China’s economy and for economic policy will be determined by what happens to the property sector and to employment. Despite the latest increase in support for property, the outlook... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Although the PMIs diverged in October, the breakdown of both is consistent with cooling domestic demand and a further slowdown in growth going into Q4. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market reform won’t transform economy The Italian Prime Minister’s package of labour market reforms is a step in the right direction, but reform efforts are moving too slowly to ensure a meaningful reduction in unemployment or improvement... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Faster wage growth could prompt Fed to hike rates The survey-based and anecdotal evidence has been pointing to a sharp acceleration in wage growth for some time, yet the growth rate of the monthly average hourly earnings measure has remained... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
