Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth slowed in October, but may see a boost from higher winter bonuses by year-end. However, growth in base pay is unlikely to accelerate much further. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Following a surge in industrial output and retail sales in September, we are not too worried about the small drops in October. Indeed, the labour market remains tight despite sluggish demand. However... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Despite a small rise this month, small business confidence remains subdued. However, shrinking spare capacity and higher input costs point to rising price pressure. 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that manufacturing activity has continued to cool, but it also provided some hope that downward pressure on domestic demand has eased up so far in the fourth quarter. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (November) While the flash manufacturing PMI edged lower in November, it still indicates that activity in the sector will continue to recover. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are real wages rising faster than the official figures suggest? The latest figures showing that annual growth in average earnings has only just begun to exceed inflation appear to understate the extent to which living standards are improving for most people. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices regain some poise The various measures of house prices appear to be sending different messages, but on balance it looks like price gains have picked up again following outright falls earlier in the year. The Case-... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown – one year on It’s been a year since the Saudi Arabian authorities launched a crackdown on illegal migrants working in the Kingdom. In this Watch, we assess what impact that the crackdown, as well as the government... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) The latest labour market data provided encouraging signs that the strength of the jobs recovery is finally starting to feed through to a sustained pick-up in real wages. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
