India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch 2015 rate rise still likely despite oil price plunge Heightened uncertainty regarding how weak inflation will be in 2015 and signs that the recovery has become less broad-based are likely to mean that the MPC keeps interest rates on hold at January’s... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Another bumper report The latest evidence suggests that the impressive 321,000 rise in non-farm payroll employment in November was no fluke. We expect that it was followed by a gain of 300,000 in December. That would push... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Demographic headwinds are picking up Firms were predicting strong gains in industrial output around the turn of the year despite some weakness in the latest figures on spending and production. But with the labour force now shrinking and... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish. 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Unemp. (Nov.) Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is on track to fall back within target range in December. However, we doubt that this will be enough to prevent policymakers from raising... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of December’s meeting indicated that the MPC remains focussed on the outlook for domestic price pressures. As such, the latest labour data showing that pay growth is building but... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that Japan’s economy stabilised in the fourth quarter, but a rapid recovery is not on the cards. 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
