Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The latest labour market figures showed that the recovery in real wages is gathering pace. Despite this, an interest rate rise still looks a way off, with the MPC turning its attention in its recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q4 GDP & December Activity Data Today's data suggest that although slowing investment, particularly in the property sector, continues to put downward pressure on growth, this was offset last quarter by a pick-up in consumption and... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The first rise in consumer confidence since July should be followed by a further improvement as falling energy prices improve households’ purchasing power. 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys hard to square with wage weakness The latest batch of survey data released this morning suggest that labour market conditions are even stronger than we previously believed and leaves the slowdown in wage growth looking even odder. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The strong rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December stands in stark contrast with other business surveys which mostly weakened last month. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The combination of a decent 252,000 rise in payroll employment in December and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, from 5.8%, still leaves the door open to the Fed raising interest rates... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.)2 The 4,300 decline in employment in December is a little disappointing, particularly as it follows a 10,700 fall the month before that. To some extent, however, the declines in the final two months of... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much lower will unemployment get? The unemployment rate has fallen below the level consistent with stable price pressure in recent months. It is unlikely to fall much further, as the pool of attractive job candidates is drying up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Early end to strike doesn’t solve coal sector’s problems The end to strike action in India’s coal sector three days earlier than planned should ensure a quick resumption to normal production levels, which will reduce the risk of blackouts in the near term... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Unemployment (Nov.) December’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation into negative territory could herald the start of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation in the currency union, which may in turn threaten to re-ignite... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
