Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys highlight labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to further strong job gains and a pick-up in wage growth. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rise in consumer confidence for the second straight month should be followed by a further improvement as households benefit from lower energy prices. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's stronger than expected 35,400 gain in employment was driven entirely by a surge in part-time jobs. Accordingly, we wouldn't read too much into the small decline in the official jobless rate... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted productivity growth holding back real wage gains The weakness of wage growth is partly due to the near-stagnation in productivity. Unfortunately, the news last week that non-farm productivity was unchanged over 2014 as a whole, suggests there is... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength, maybe now people will believe us. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in January and the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House prices start the year on a stable footing The slowdown in the housing market appears to be bottoming out, helped by record low mortgage rates, rising real earnings and the reform to stamp duty. If banks respond to the increase in demand by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts 2015 on a surer footing While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP indicated that the recovery lost pace towards the end of 2014, early 2015 appears to have seen a renewed acceleration. Indeed, monthly indicators of output... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The surge in labour cash earnings in December reflects higher winter bonuses and is unlikely to last. A strong rise in base pay in the upcoming spring wage negotiations will be needed to improve the... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s drop in core euro-zone inflation to a record low brought further confirmation that deflationary pressures in the currency union go well beyond the effect of falling oil and energy prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
